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Vaccine and all-cause mortality

When the new vaccines against COVID hit the market there was one thing that was made clear, the vaccines protect against serious cases of COVID including hospitalizations and deaths. With time it became clear that the vaccines don't reduce infections and while, in many cases, they actually increase infections, vaccine advocates continue to claim that the vaccine prevents hospitalization and death.

The original studies that were conducted in order to get regulatory approval did not examine all-cause mortality, rather it looked at mortality from COVID - since that was what the vaccines were designed to reduce. And in fact, the vaccines did show a significant reduction in deaths from COVID. But what about all-cause mortality? Could it be that the vaccines reduced deaths from COVID but increase deaths from other causes? This question led to much speculation and was reinforced by careful examination of the report from Pfizer[1].

The report showed that after 8 months of study, there were 21 deaths in the vaccinated group and 17 in the unvaccinated group. Indeed, there were more deaths from the vaccine group than there were in the placebo group. Not by much, just about a 22% relative increase, but since this was just below being statistically significant, and the report did not consider the deaths to be caused by the vaccine - the case was closed.

In April 2022, a study[2] made available as a preprint in The Lancet was comparing the mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) to the adenovirus-vector (AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson) to examine how they differ regarding adverse reactions. In the introduction, the paper states, “it has now been established in numerous studies, [that] vaccines may have completely unexpected effects on overall mortality.” And that this was particularly concerning since “The placebo-controlled RCTs of COVID-19 vaccines were halted rapidly due to clear [positive] effects on COVID-19 infections.” 


The data showed that participants who had the mRNA vaccine had higher cardiovascular deaths, non-accidental deaths, and all-cause deaths compared to the placebo groups after examining nine randomized-controlled trials (RCTs). If not for the lives the vaccines saved in COVID deaths, the mRNA vaccines would have killed more people than they saved. This is important since many people taking the mRNA vaccines are at low risk of dying from COVID. It was noted in the conclusion that most of the wealthier countries chose the mRNA vaccines, which were connected to higher mortality. The authors concluded by saying that “this could turn out to be a very costly decision, both economically and health-wise.”  

See an interview with the lead researcher, Prof. Christine Stabell-Benn: 

Real-world data      

Can this observation that the mRNA vaccines potentially cause more deaths than they save be seen in real-world data? There have been a few observational studies[3] that examined the issue and found that vaccination was associated with reduced overall mortality, so there was nothing to fear. These studies were conducted in the first six months of the vaccination campaign, but it seems things have changed over time. 

The Expose presented data[4] from the UK’s Office of National Statistics comparing all-cause mortality from the start of the vaccination campaign in January 2021 to January 2022 and found a surprising difference.


Vaccinated individuals in January 2021 were dramatically more protected against all causes of death compared to the unvaccinated. But by January 2022, vaccinated individuals who did not receive a booster were dramatically worse off compared to the unvaccinated.  

Perhaps it’s just a statistical anomaly in January’s data. So The Expose charted the data over the course of 2021 to see when this change occurred.


According to the above graph, during the months of October and November the picture started to change – unless the vaccinated received a booster they would be more likely to die than if they took no vaccine at all, and the situation was much worse for those injected with just one dose (red lines). While it makes sense that a booster shot should improve the risk of death, what is troubling is that the two-dose vaccine was associated with more mortality than no vaccine at all.

This may be a good reason to take a booster, but it’s also concerning that hundreds of millions of people’s lives are potentially at risk just because they got vaccinated. Before drawing a conclusion it’s imperative that the analysis is broken down by age range since that’s a key indicator of COVID mortality and of vaccination uptake. If age is ignored, it could be that the unvaccinated are dying less because they tend to be younger, and younger people generally have much lower mortality.   

The following graphs show all-cause mortality per 100K across each age group:


Across every age group, without exception by January 2022 the double vaccinated died more than the unvaccinated. It could still be that the unvaccinated in each group happen to be healthier, or less prone to death than those who were vaccinated, and for that, a more in-depth study would need to be conducted.

Further into 2022

The Office of National Statistics only provided data ending in January 2022. So there is no data on all-cause mortality in the UK past January 2022. Since we’ve seen earlier that the mRNA vaccines, in particular, could save lives overall only because they reduce COVID deaths, but otherwise would increase deaths, we can look at the vaccine’s effectiveness on COVID deaths to get a clue about what’s happening with the all-cause mortality. If the vaccines don’t protect against COVID deaths, then all-cause mortality would be higher among the vaccinated.  

The UK Health Security Agency used to provide weekly surveillance reports on COVID related deaths and vaccination status. The Expose analyzed data from January to the end of March (Week 5, Week 9 and Week 13) and discovered the following:


In all ages over 40 years old, the unvaccinated died less from COVID than the double dose vaccinated. If the vaccine was just ineffective at protecting against COVID related death, then the death rates would be about the same, maybe because the protection has worn off or maybe the threat has changed (new variant). But what is being observed is that the vaccine doesn’t just provide no protection without the booster, it provides negative protection.

This is very similar to what we saw when it came to vaccine effectiveness against COVID infections. The original studies did not show, or even look for vaccine protection against COVID infections. And as time when on it was clear that the vaccine not only did not protect against infection but was associated with increased infections. Having a greater risk of developing a COVID infection is an acceptable price to pay if the vaccine protects against serious illness and death, but if the vaccine is not only associated with more infections but also more deaths, of what value is it?

Based on several RCTS, and months of real-world data, the evidence suggests that the COVID vaccines are causing more death than they save.

Email questions or comments to frontlinepedia@aflds.org



"There were a total of 38 deaths, 21 in the COMIRNATY group and 17 in the placebo group"


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