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Frontline Library

Infection Fatality Rate

In February 2020 the predictions of the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), or “death rate” from COVID were estimated by the World Health Organization (WHO) to be 3.4%.[1] We were told that COVID was much more deadly than the seasonal flu and we must “flatten the curve” to avoid overwhelming the hospitals.[2] Seven months later, the WHO acknowledges in its report that “infection fatality rates tended to be much lower than estimates made earlier in the pandemic.”[3] The WHO’s report found that the “median COVID infection fatality rate was 0.27%”.[4] Other studies support this finding with IFRs of .01% - .32%. By comparison, the flu has an IFR of .1% - .2%, or about ten times higher than COVID’s IFR.[5]

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[1] “WHO says coronavirus death rate is 3.4% globally” 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.htm

[2]A flatter curve, on the other hand, assumes the same number of people ultimately get infected, but over a longer period of time”

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-flatten-the-curve.html 

[3] “The inferred infection fatality rates tended to be much lower than estimates made earlier in the pandemic”

https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf 

[4]median COVID-19 infection fatality rate was 0.27%

https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf 

[5] “coronavirus might not be as deadly as flu”

 https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/stanford-study-suggests-coronavirus-might-not-be-as-deadly-as-flu

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