Israel’s ‘fourth wave’ data: Vaccination does not prevent infection

New data from Israel confirms that four months after mass vaccination the vaccinated public becomes infected with COVID at about the same rate as the unvaccinated.

With the “fourth wave” of infections having started in June, the vaccination campaign is put to its first real-world test in combating a new wave of COVID. The results show that vaccination using Pfizer’s two-dose protocol does not appear to prevent infection.



[The data excludes ages 70+ since many started taking the third injection]

What has become clear is that the vaccinated population became infected at about the same rate as the vaccination rate in a given age group – meaning vaccination did not correlate with a decrease in infection. Sampling bias is also matter for concern, as the unvaccinated are tested far more than the vaccinated due to the Green Passport that requires the unvaccinated to be tested in order to go to indoor events, restaurants, etc. This would indicate that the unvaccinated became infected to a lesser extent than the vaccinated, however, since the Ministry of Health stopped publishing the vaccination status of all those who are tested, the degree to which the selection bias is a factor is unknown.

This data has wide policy implications, including Israel’s decision to start the third injection. Perhaps most significant is that vaccine passports are based on the assumption that the vaccination limits the spread of the virus, which this data shows not to be the case.

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