Analysis: Israeli COVID vaccine safety data ‘worth nothing’

“No sophisticated analysis compensates for garbage data. If the numbers represent nothing, their statistical analysis means nothing, and the risk-benefit analysis is worth nothing.”

Israeli computational neuroscientist Matan Holzer yesterday released an analysis and demonstration of the Israel Health Ministry COVID-19 vaccine safety reporting system and data, concluding that “their data is worth nothing,” and “their adverse event data collection is façade, evidently resulting in huge under-reporting.”

Holzer continues (edited for brevity): “Some readers may wonder: ‘Why would I care about what Israeli authorities claim? Why would I bother to read Hebrew material?’ The point is, the U.S. FDA relies on Israeli data, so any manipulation in Israeli data affects your kids’ safety!”

“So, Israeli authorities claimed, for example, that there are very few cases of myocarditis after the ‘booster’ shot. They go with this presentation to the FDA advisory committee. A reminder – your children’s safety is based on those numbers.

“So, is it reliable?”

fda.gov/media/153086/d…Image

Regarding Israel’s drug adverse events reporting system, Holzer says: “Unlike the U.S.’s VAERS and the EU’s Eudravigilance, which are public and transparent, Israel had nothing like that. They created a link to fill forms, which, supposedly, will be sent to authorities for monitoring.”

 

“Let’s try. The reference number is created upon loading the page (check by refreshing), not after submission, therefore worth nothing; no need for identifying details. Meaning it can’t be verified. Does every report enter the system? If I report 100 deaths, will it show up tomorrow?”

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“Fill in whatever you like, and click Send at the bottom.
“You’ll get this: ‘No reference number for submission’.”
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Holzer charitably counsels that we “suppose the file does go somewhere and somebody views it. What can he/she do? There are no personal data, so no way to validate the report. And when I provided those, a month ago, nobody called back:

“So they definitely don’t verify the report, and they don’t even pretend to do so (as they don’t require identifying details). What can they do? Only decide in some magical way what is true and what is fake, what is related and what is unrelated.”

Holzer adds “a very important word about ‘related’: Don’t be fooled by doctors who ‘know’ something is unrelated. They have no way to track the circle of events. It just means they didn’t hear of increase in prevalence of such events after vaccine; corollary: It’s likely coincidence.

“But as long as you dismiss events because you don’t know they are related, you won’t see any increase in statistics. This is circular reasoning that will prevent us from understanding what’s going on (unless for some external reason a sign appears).Image
“For example, before the myocarditis sign was processed (late April), probably all those cases were dismissed as ‘unrelated’. Maybe even some of those ‘unrelated’ severe events in Pfizer’s clinical trial, were actually myocarditis:

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Holzer continues his presentation by moving from what he calls “methods” to “results”: “Remember I claimed that their numbers are clearly seen to be under-reported?
“1) COMMON SIDE EFFECTS: On April 30th, the Israel Health Ministry published a document about safety, based on more than 5 million jabs. The maximum number of common (not severe) side effects is 287/million or ~0.03%. Compare this to Pfizer data, 15%-30%. Clear under-reporting by a factor of ~100:
“Just nobody cared to report and/or nobody cared to collect [the data]. It’s not so important, as those effects are not life-threatening and their prevalence is pretty much known from the trial. But presenting that as collected data is ridiculous.
“2) SEVERE ADVERSE EVENTS: In a similar report, the Israel Health Ministry claims to compare the number of ALL X-type EVENTS within month-after-vaccination to a regular month. Remember – only by comparing the number of all events we can know if incidence has changed, not only those someone thinks are related:

“So they claim that in the month-after-vaccination there were only 0.2/M heart attacks, while in a usual month there are 160? Did the hospitals empty and all the doctors went to the Maldives?

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“Of course not. The comparison is unfair. They list only a very tiny fraction of events, probably only those a doctor decided are ‘related’, and dismissed all the rest.
“Slide 18:
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“So, basically they compare doctor-confirmed related events to a usual month, and claim: Wow, there are less doctor-confirmed related events compared to the usual number!!! But they claim to list all events, regardless of whether related. Just ridiculous.

“Slide 8, bottom:

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“3) DIRECT EVIDENCE FOR IGNORED REPORTS: On September 30th, 2021, the Israel Health Ministry published a post in Facebook, claiming only 19 (yes, nineteen) ‘significant adverse events.’ The post got thousands of replies, out of which hundreds/thousands reported their own experience: facebook.com/Health.gov.il/…
“It mentions that until September 30th, 2021, 3.4 million ‘booster’ doses were given in Israel, and 2.2 million were given a month before. But they know about 19 cases only…”
Holzer continues: “Identifying signals of adverse events is a very challenging task; identifying myocarditis took a few months. You can’t rely on two months’ data. On top of that, Israel’s data collection is messy, not-transparent, and evidently missing.”
Holzer concludes: “Israeli data shouldn’t be relied upon. Then, they compile those numbers into scientific-paper format, and present it as ‘science’. But no sophisticated analysis compensates for garbage data. If the numbers represent nothing, their statistical analysis means nothing, and the risk-benefit analysis is worth nothing.”
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